While financial institutions in South Africa and around the world have been rocked by the global financial crisis, they need to move out of survival mode and start charting a course towards promoting long-term financial stability and growth.
That was the message from Rogan Davies, head of Financial Services at professional consulting organisation The IQ Business Group to representatives of the local financial services industry at a function held in Johannesburg today (June 8, 2009).
Organised by IQ and BANKSERV, the function focused on examining how recent shifts in the global financial system would affect South African banks over the next three to 15 years, using the World Economic Forum’s report on the Future of the Global Financial System as the basis for the discussions.
Keynote speaker Nicholas Davis, Associate Director in the World Economic Forum’s Scenario Planning team and the scenario lead on the report, set out the main findings of the report which was developed by the World Economic Forum and overseen by a steering committee of 20 leading industry practitioners and academics.
According to Davis, the near-term outlook for the industry would be characterised by an expanded scope for regulatory oversight, back to basics in the banking sector, some restructuring by alternative investment firms and the emergence of a new set of winners and losers.
Over the long-term, a range of external forces and critical uncertainties would have the power to significantly shape the industry. In particular, the World Economic Forum’s study found that the pace of geo-economic power shifts from today’s advanced economies to the emerging world and the degree of international coordination on financial policy were the two most critical uncertainties for the future of the global financial system.
Pieter Cilliers, CEO at BANKSERV said that although South African financial institutions had been spared much of the turmoil affecting their global counterparts, they had to take cognisance of the changes in global market structures. Cilliers added that the report released by the World Economic Forum’s Scenario Planning team gives a great indication of the driving force shaping the global financial system with an insightful view of four potential long term scenarios.
IQ’s Davies noted that one of the most disturbing aspects of the global financial crisis was the speed with which change had been foisted on the industry.
“While the future remains uncertain, we still need to plan. We believe that the World Economic Forum report provides the clearest roadmap of where the industry is likely to go. It offers alternatives and highlights signals that we need to look out for as we plan for what is likely to be a very different future,” he concluded.
An executive summary of the report and the full report can be downloaded by clicking on the following links:
Project Steering Committee and executive summary of report (PDF 1.6 MB)
Full report “The Future of the Global Financial System” (PDF 11.8 MB)
Tags: financial system, Global Recession, South Africa Finance
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