The UK economy will recover slowly and will not return to groth before the start of next year, warned the the Confederation of British Industry today.
The industry group said commentators had been too quick to seize on data that appeared to signal an early recovery and that talk of green shoots had been overdone.
Not only did it predict no rebound this year, but also the CBI predicted growth of no more than 0.3% in the first half of next year.
The CBI evidently sees its forecasts as something of a reality check after an optimistic report last week from the the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said that the economy had begun to grow again in April and May
The organisation predicts that GDP will flatten out during the second half of 2009, followed by modest quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.1% and 0.3% in the first two quarters of 2010. By the end of the recession, the CBI believes the economy will have shrunk by a cumulative 4.8% - not as severe as the 5.9% seen in the early 1980s.
While the harshest period of the recession looks to be over, CBI director general Richard Lambert said the UK economy now faced a period of stabilisation.
He added: ‘The return to growth is likely to be a slow and gradual one; difficult credit conditions are still affecting business behaviour. For positive growth to return, lenders need to feel more confident so that credit can start flowing again.’
The CBI’s chief economic adviser Ian McCafferty said: ‘For consumers, some of the worst fears of earlier in the year may now not be realised, but they will still face tough times as higher saving and lower income eat in to their ability to spend.’
Tags: chief economic, confederation of british industry, uk economy
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