U.S. consumers will spend less and the fallout from the collapse of the commercial real estate market will spread, leading to even more bank failures, says economist Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business.
Furthermore, residential real estate prices have more room to fall, non-government bonds will come under pressure as consumers save amid weak credit markets.
“It’s going to be death by a thousand cuts,” Roubini told CNBC.
“The financial system is severely damaged, and it’s not just the banks.”
According to Roubini, more than 1,000 financial institutions could go under when the crisis is finally over, while housing prices should fall by another 12 percent in the next year as supply outstrips demand.
Roubini often predicts a double-dip recovery, under which the economy bounces back a bit and grows only to slide back into contraction again before finally emerging.
Policymakers are quick to point out that the recession is ending but admit that credit markets are tight and unemployment remains high.
“Even though from a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point, it’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time as many people will still find that their job security and their employment status is not what they wish it was,” Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke recently said.
Tags: business, economics, economist, real estate, us
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