Analysts expect that a private forecast of U.S. economic activity rose at a slightly slower pace in December, signaling that the slow, bumpy recovery from the recession was likely to continue.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators likely rose 0.7 percent last month, according to Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters. The index, which is meant to project economic activity in the next three to six months, rose 0.9 percent in November. A rise in December would mark the ninth straight monthly gain.
The Conference Board forecasts economic activity by measuring claims for unemployment aid, stock prices, consumer expectations, building permits for private homes, the money supply and other data.
The report is scheduled for release Thursday at 10 a.m. EST.
In its release last month, the Conference Board had cautioned that its measure tracking growth over a longer time span, six months, was slowing. The 5.7 percent growth rate in the six months through September was the strongest since 1983, but has slowed since then. The real estate sector is having a hiccup, with construction flagging in December. Consumer spending remains constrained as weekly wages drop and unemployment stays elevated at 10 percent. Small businesses continued to report rough credit conditions in a recent survey by the National Federation of Independent Businesses.
Economists expect the U.S. economic output surged 4.4 percent in the last three months of 2009, from an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the July-September quarter. That’s thanks in large part to rebuilding of business inventories and increasing exports.
Some analysts expect stagnant growth for years to come as government support programs wind down and jobs stay scarce.
Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of the bond investment firm Pimco, has said he expects U.S. GDP to grow only about an average 2 percent a year. Home Security Systems.
Tags: economic indicators, economy recovery, real estate sector, recession, stock prices, unemployment, us economic
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