Economists expect the recovery to remain “firmly on track” over the next two years though job growth is likely to remain slow, according to a new survey.
The latest outlook from The National Association for Business Economics, set to be released Monday, sees regular job gains resuming this quarter but no drop in unemployment below 9 percent for another year. Consumer spending will be relatively sluggish as consumers continue to dig themselves out of debt but inflation is expected to remain subdued, and home prices should rise at a rate slightly above inflation in 2010 and 2011.
“We see a healthy expansion under way, although it will take time to reduce economic slack and repair damaged balance sheets,” said Lynn Reaser, the group’s president and chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.
The NABE forecast is largely consistent with its last quarterly forecast in November and reflects an economy in slow-but-steady recovery mode.
Its prediction that unemployment will decline only to 9.6 percent by the fourth quarter also mirrors the Federal Reserve’s forecast last week that the jobless rate will remain high over the next two years because businesses are likely to stay cautious about taking on more workers. The NABE economists foresee an average monthly gain of 103,000 jobs this year.
The survey was conducted before the government released the January unemployment rate this month, showing an unexpected drop in unemployment to 9.7 percent from 10 percent.
Gains in discretionary spending by both businesses and households should power what the economists’ group characterized as a recovery still in its early phase. Still, consumer spending is expected to rise only 2.2 percent this year before increasing 2.8 percent next year, according to the poll. The economists attribute that lackluster rate mostly to past wealth losses and only modest employment gains.
Businesses are expected to play a bigger role in the expansion. That will partially reflect strong gains in corporate profits, forecast to be up 24 percent over the next two years.
Participants in the survey consider the housing market rebound sustainable. Home prices are predicted to rise 1.6 percent in 2010 and an additional 2.6 percent in 2011. Those may not be huge increases but they would still represent an important watershed for the economy, the NABE noted, after the declines of the recent past.
The stock market is expected to climb significantly in 2010 and 2011. On average, the economists predict the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, a widely used barometer of the stock market, will rise 23 percent over the next two years. The S&P 500 jumped 3.1 percent last week, though it’s still down 29.1 percent from its high.
Those surveyed agreed that financial headwinds are expected to remain problematic but also should abate. Bank lending, for example, is seen becoming less restrictive over the course of this year as bank earnings and economic conditions improve.
Nearly a third of those surveyed, however, believe conditions will remain restrictive due to regulatory guidance, capital pressures and a general climate of risk aversion.
Federal debt was identified as the biggest concern among 14 economic challenges.
The NABE survey of 48 professional forecasters was taken Jan. 22-Feb. 4. Hard money training.
Tags: business economics, economists, federal debt, inflation, unemployment
orsay museet…
[...]l Very few sites that happen to be detailed below, from our point of view are po[...]…
nattklubbar hongkong…
[...]e Finally someone who’s writing about something other than superficioul thing ii[...]…
museum konstnären van gogh…
[...]8 Very few sites that happen to be detailed below, from our point of view are sz[...]…
flyg till shanghai…
[...]b Very few sites that happen to be detailed below, from our point of view are 5w[...]…
Sources…
[...]check below, are some totally unrelated websites to ours, however, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[...]……
open air, it’s necessary for the handheld…
gps to be waterproof, dust-resistant and shock resistant. but the car gps doesn’t require too much about that. anyhow, the car environment can never that harsh.the handhold gps comes with the simpler functions. most of the gps devices are of grey…
Just keep looking…
this blog appears not to be so well maintained these days but I like the post…
Blogging For Fun and Education…
[...]check below, are some totally unrelated websites to ours, however, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[...]…
hereditary legacy counts a lot on hair…
types and conditions. since people living in different parts of the world are differentiated also with their hair types. the color, the texture and the strength of hairs are major matters of hair to all people. since hair is visible part…
preventing breast cancer!):* mood swings* weight gain…
/ excess body fat* fatigue* depression* headaches and migraines* breast tenderness* fibrocystic breasts* water retention* foggy thinking* irritability* anxiety* heavy bleeding* uterine fibroids* cold body temperature* breast cancerwould you agree that …
or if you add something simple such…
as a bowl of fresh fruit or a bouquet of flowers. the light that comes in the room also makes these tables look nicer, brighter and easily the focal point of the room.all glass tables are not dallas windshield repair created equally though, as…
manufacturer’s websites, and sign up for promotional…
emails. online discussion groups and people that you know can be a wealth of information, too. remember to check with the store ahead of time, to make certain they accept coupons from the internet. be aware of expiration dates, too. most…
results will turn up many, many websites…
that may have what you’re looking for and also offering various coupons for a variety of customer products and grocery items.tip #2: check out the various manufacturers’ website for free printable coupons.many major food companies have websites where…
whatever maybe your trouble let firestone coupons…
give you the smart and best options. they also have a commendable customer service that can be contacted through either their website or the phone number they give in the same site.printable coupons now you actually do not need to go…
on how to get rid of a…
yeast infection naturally, without having to use the typical drug-based medications that a doctor generally prescribes. and by the same token, that probably also means that you don’t want to use drug-based over-the-counter medications to eliminate you…
fast compared to most lcd units. however,…
in the long run, plasmas can encounter pixel burn out which will negatively affect your viewing experience. to get maximum sharpness for the longest time, lcds are considered to have a slight advantage over plasmas.the next factor to be taken into…
negotiations and court proceedings. they will help…
you know how to act and react during your trial. you may be able to garner information from articles on the web about how to handle a court case by yourself but nothing replaces the help you get with confidence.if you’ve…