* Market tests Japan’s willingness to intervene
* Dwindling U.S.-Japan yield gap seen hurting dollar
* Euro hits record low against Swiss franc on risk aversion (Adds detail, updates prices, changes byline, changes dateline, previous LONDON)
The yen rose toward a 15-year high against the dollar on Tuesday as investors shrugged off the Bank of Japan’s latest easing move, betting on yen gains that would again test official readiness to intervene.
Mounting U.S. economic concerns are likely to keep investors away from riskier assets and push up the safe-haven yen. That could eventually prompt Japan to sell its currency in the markets for the first time in more than six years.
“The policy action by the BoJ isn’t going to change the market’s mood. It would probably take intervention to shake things up a bit,” said Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.
“But we’re not even sure that would cause a sustained reversal of yen strength. If you go back to 2004, intervention by itself did not cause an immediate turnaround in the yen,” he added.
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda repeated on Tuesday that the government would take decisive action on currencies — usually seen as code for intervention — when necessary. But the reaction in the market was limited.
On Monday, the BOJ expanded cheap loans to banks, a move seen as a symbolic gesture that will do little to halt the currency’s climb.
Traders said the policy response to the yen’s strength has been insufficient given the current sentiment and lack of appetite for a coordinated policy response from other Group of 8 rich nations, who are grappling with their own problems.
“These measures seem more suited to dealing with the negative economic effects of yen strength, rather than directly addressing the currency, suggesting more than a little hesitation in meeting the issue head-on at current dollar/yen valuations,” said Sacha Tihanyi, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.
In early New York trading, the dollar was down 0.3 percent at 84.39 yen JPY=. It had earlier fallen to 84.06, according to Reuters data, not far from its 15-year low of 83.58 set on electronic trading platform EBS last week.
The dollar has fallen about 2.5 percent against the yen this month and is down more than 9 percent this year.
Traders say Japanese authorities are expected to buy the dollar against the yen if the dollar slides 3-4 yen in one day. For Q+A on will Japan intervene to curb the yen’s rise,
CARRY TRADE UNWINDING
The dollar/yen rate has had a strong correlation in recent months with the yield gap between the United States and Japan. So a fall in Treasury yields also weighed on the dollar.
A raft of U.S. economic releases this week could push the yen higher. On top of jobs data on Friday, there is consumer confidence data on Tuesday and manufacturing data on Wednesday.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last board meeting will be released on Tuesday and investors will get insight into divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee and its August 10 decision to buy longer-term Treasury securities.
The yen could also face potential buyback pressure in cross trades such as euro/yen and Aussie/yen, which have attracted some interest because of their larger yield differentials.
Simon Derrick at Bank of New York Mellon said the collapse of one of New Zealand’s largest finance companies was leading to some carry trade unwinding and was hurting high-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar against the yen.
By Wanfeng Zhou
Tags: bank of japan, currency market, Federal Reserve, financial, investors, wells fargo
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